I’ve been reading Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professor at NYU’s Tandon School of Engineering. I’d long heard of his “Incerto” series on uncertainty—this book is part of it. While Antifragile is widely celebrated in economics and business, I believe the concept holds immense value across domains: from the natural world to engineering, and even to cybersecurity. So here are some scattered thoughts while reading (more caprice than systematic notes).
- Creation time: Sep. 10, 2020
- Last update: Sep. 10, 2020
Definitions
- Antifragile: Things that benefit from harm or stress.
- Note: this is not the same as merely resisting harm. Taleb defines that property as robustness.
- Fragile: The opposite—things that break under stress.
People tend to desire robustness and detest fragility (especially in investing), but they overlook antifragility. As Taleb argues, the true opposite of fragile isn’t robust—it’s antifragile.
This seemingly exotic property is actually widespread in nature: sub-lethal doses of antibiotics can make bacteria develop resistance; muscle fibers torn during exercise rebuild stronger; some people emerge from setbacks with even greater resolve.
On Vulnerabilities
This property is exactly what all software—and even hardware—should aspire to. When a vulnerability is discovered in a component, it should make developers recognize their mistakes and prevent similar errors in the future. Yet in practice, the number of vulnerabilities in actively maintained software continues to grow year over year (see: CVE Details). This is both unexpected and concerning. Even hardware vulnerabilities are being discovered at an increasing rate (looking at you, Intel). Perhaps we should think harder about how to make our systems antifragile.
On Prediction
Predicting Black Swan events is always unreliable. Historically, the most devastating shocks are things that have never happened before. Before the next disruption arrives, we can never predict its nature or impact (the COVID-19 pandemic being a prime example). All we can do is hope we have enough antifragility to weather the storm.